Metals generally rose, with SHFE lead, SHFE nickel, silicon metal, and stainless steel rising by over 1%, while polysilicon fell by over 1%, hitting a new low [SMM Daily Review]

SMM June 25 News:

Metal Market:

As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals generally rose, with only SHFE tin being the sole decliner, dropping by 0.07%. SHFE lead and SHFE nickel both rose by over 1%, with SHFE lead up 1.39% and SHFE nickel up 1.17%. The remaining metals all rose by less than 1%. The main alumina contract rose by 0.27%, and the main casting aluminum contract rose by 0.38%.

Additionally, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 0.96%, the main silicon metal contract rose by 1.55%, recording a three-day winning streak, while the main polysilicon contract fell by 1.59%, touching a record low of 30,400 yuan/mt during the session. The main European container shipping contract fell by 3.07% to close at 1740.2.

On the ferrous metals series front, prices showed mixed performance, with stainless steel rising by 1.25%, iron ore falling by 0.43%, and HRC and rebar both falling by less than 0.4%. On the coking coal and coke front, coking coal rose by 0.75%, and coke rose by 1.46%.

On the overseas market front, as of 15:02, only LME aluminum was the sole decliner among overseas market base metals, dropping by 0.41%. LME zinc and LME tin both rose by over 0.7%, with LME zinc up 0.75% and LME tin up 0.78%. LME nickel rose by 0.64%.

On the precious metals front, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.37%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.69%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.75%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.44%.

Market conditions as of 15:02 today

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Macro Front

Domestic Aspect:

[Ministry of Finance: Timely launch incremental reserve policies based on changing situations] According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 24th, at the invitation of the State Council, Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an presented a report on the 2024 central final accounts to the 16th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress. According to the report, in 2024, new progress was made in various aspects of fiscal reform and development, and the overall situation of the central final accounts was good. The report indicated that in the next step, more proactive fiscal policies would be fully utilized, and incremental reserve policies would be timely launched based on changing situations, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and fully consolidating the fundamentals of economic development and social stability.

[PBOC's reverse repo operations achieve a net injection of 209 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted 365.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 156.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net injection of 209 billion yuan was achieved on the day.

► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on June 25 was 7.1668 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar Aspect:

As of 15:02, the US dollar index rose by 0.07% to close at 98.04. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the semi-annual congressional hearing on the 24th that the Fed currently has the full capacity to wait for further understanding of the possible direction of the economy before considering adjusting its policy stance. If inflation is weaker than expected or the job market deteriorates, the US Fed may cut interest rates more quickly. Higher-than-expected inflation, on the other hand, may prompt the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. Powell stated that the vast majority of policymakers believe that an interest rate cut later this year is appropriate.

Macro Aspects:

Today, revised figures for the annualized total of US building permits in May, the annualized total of seasonally adjusted new home sales in the US in May, New Zealand's trade balance in May, Switzerland's Credit Suisse/CFA Economic Expectations Index for June, Australia's ANZ Consumer Confidence Index for the week ending June 22, Australia's seasonally adjusted annual CPI rate for May from the Bureau of Statistics, and other data will be released. Additionally, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech. Fed Chairman Powell will testify before the Senate Committee on the semi-annual monetary policy report. NATO heads of state and government will hold a summit in The Hague from June 24 to 25, with Trump confirming his attendance. The Bank of Japan will publish the summary of opinions from the members of the June Monetary Policy Meeting.

Crude Oil Aspects:

As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets rose by over 1%, with US crude oil up 1.76% and Brent crude oil up 1.69%. After a sharp decline in the past two trading days, investors are taking a breather to assess the stability of geopolitical risks.

Moreover, investors are awaiting the US government's domestic crude oil and fuel inventory data to be released on Wednesday. An expanded survey indicates that US crude oil inventories may have declined last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories may have increased. On average, surveyed analytical institutions expect a decrease of approximately 800,000 barrels in US crude oil inventories for the week ending June 20. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) shows that US crude oil and distillate inventories declined last week, while gasoline inventories rose. The report indicates that for the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventories decreased by 4.23 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 1.03 million barrels, and gasoline inventories increased by 764,000 barrels. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

SMM Daily Review

►Aluminum Scrap Prices Steady Today, Downstream Purchasing as Needed in Off-Season [Aluminum Scrap Daily Review]

►Silver Prices in the Doldrums, Spot Market Transactions Improve Slightly [SMM Daily Review]

►Molybdenum Market in Off-Season with Declining Demand, Prices Fall Across the Board [SMM Molybdenum Daily Review]

►Rare Earth Market Transactions Sluggish, Prices Polarized [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review]